Wednesday, 27 February 2008

Ohio Debate Blogging En Direct

The last of the debates before the March 4 primaries. Should be interesting given all the crap that's happened in the past week. Part 1 can be found on youtube.com here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgSj5Wt1Ap4


Part 1
00:10 - Russert....!

00:45 - Strange, they start right off with clips of HRC instead of allowing them to make opening statements...

01:43 - HRC explains her "Shame on You" comment. Says that Obama's tactics in the last 48 hours -- his NAFTA flyers -- made her do it. Those flyers were in Wisconsin for weeks. That would explain why she still thinks she can win, she's lost in a time warp 8 weeks ago.

03:11 - Don't you hate it when any politician says "So, we should have a good debate based on facts" blah blah.

04:09 - The photo's circulation is brought up. Both candidates brush it aside gracefully.

06:04 - Obama's making all sorts of dirty on HRC's health care pitch.

08:30 - HRC keeps referencing independent experts on the health care thing. Personally, this isn't a huge issue for me. The big difference is the mandate vs no mandate issue. Obama's plan focuses on costs and prevention, HRC's plan forces people to buy insurance from insurance companies. Obama's campaign requested three profs from Harvard to evaluate his plan, and they estimated it would reduce insurance costs by about $2,500 per family. FactCheck.org did a pretty cool run-down of the two plans found here:

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/theyve_got_you_covered.html

The Harvard study is here:
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/finalcostsmemo.pdf

10:48 - HRC's hijacking this thing.

Part 2
03:36 - Good god, Hilldog, stop.

04:45 - NAFTA!!!

05:15 - Holy shit, HRC is flipping out that she has to answer first on NAFTA. This goes in line with her blame-everyone-but-herself thing that's been happening recently as the nomination slips further and further away. Full quote: "Well can I just point out that in the last several debates, I seem to get the first question ALL THE TIME. And I don't mind. Y'know I'll be happy to field them, but I do find it curious. And if anybody saw Saturday Night Live, y'know, maybe we should ask Barack if he's comfortable and needs another pillow." Crowd boos. What the hell, this is the CINC from Day-1? Hahahaha. She's drowning in her own bubbling hot vat of self destruction at this point. Oh, and the SNL thing is a reference to a skit where the moderators of a Dem debate are obviously in love with Obama.

06:20 - Okay, your husband opens up a Free-Trade zone, and you are surprised that manufacturing jobs move south HRC?

08:30 - Obama always referencing labor and enviro standards.

Part 3
00:05 - NAFTA, continued.

01:55 - HRC's dig at Obama on trade/NAFTA is weak. "Senator Obama told the farmers of Illinois a couple years that he wanted more trade agreements." Ouch!

04:30 - Okay both candidates agree on NAFTA. Both want standards of enforcement and removal of corporate tax breaks for companies who move jobs overseas (how bizarre is that anyway). Both want to try to reduce the effects of globalization on small communities.

08:18 - Interesting historical reference by Russert. In 2000, HRC apparently promised New Yorkers 200,000 new jobs for upstate New York, and they've actually lost 35,000. HRC's response "No, what happened in 2000 was I thought Al Gore would be president." So...she make's promises she knows she can't keep.

09:27 - Let's do some geothermal baby!

Part 4
00:15 - HRC's speech yesterday: "We've seen the tragic result of having a president who had neither the experience nor the wisdom to manage our foreign policy and safeguard our national security. We cannot let that happen again, America has already taken that chance one time too many."

00:43 - John McCain's vast FP expertise -- surge is working because I say so, and let's bomb Iran.

02:30 - Obama's kicking ass on FP. "On the critical issues that actually matter, I believe my judgment has been sound, and it has been superior to Sen Clinton and Sen McCain's."

03:01 - Hearing Hilldog talk about her role in Northern Irish peace is hilarious. What, she had some tea and biscuits with Sinn Fein? She was there man, she was there!

03:33 - HRC: Yeah, but, but! Obama didn't have responsibility at the time, he didn't have to vote on Iraq!

04:22 - Wow. HRC: "Last summer, he threatened to bomb Pakistan."

04:33 - Her Pakistan plan? Be tougher on Musharraf. She always sees things at the state-level. Her generation should just leave, they aren't helping in this "4GW" stuff.

04:48 - Ugh, not the whole "I won't meet with Iran unless there are preconditions" garbage again.

05:40 - Obama: "My objections to the war in Iraq were not simply a speech...I was very specific as to why. So when I bring this up, it's not simply to say 'I told you so' but it's to give insight into how I make decisions. The fact was, this was a big strategic blunder. It was not a matter of, 'Well, here's the initial decision and since then we've voted the same way.' Once we had driven the bus into the ditch, there were only so many ways we could get out. The question is who's making the decision initially to drive the bus into the ditch and the fact is that Sen Clinton often says she's ready on day one, but in fact she was ready to give in to George Bush on day one on this critical issue. So the same person that she criticizes for having terrible judgment, and we can't afford to have another one of those, in fact she facilitated and enabled, this individual, to make a decision that has been strategically damaging to the United States of America. With respect to Pakistan, I never said I would bomb Pakistan. What I said was, that if we have actionable intelligence against bin Laden or other key Al-Qaeda officials and Pakistan is unwilling or unable to strike against them, we should. And just several days ago, in fact, this admin did exactly that and took out the third ranking Al-Qaeda official. That is the position we should have taken in the first place...the fact is, it is the right strategy. And so my claim is not simply based on a speech, it is based on the judgments that I've displayed during the course of my service on the Foreign Relations Committee, while I've been in the United States Senate, and, as somebody who during the course of this campaign has put forward a plan that will provide a clean break against Bush and Cheney, and that is how we're gonna be able to debate with John McCain. Having a debate against John McCain where your positions were essentially similar until you started running for President, I think, does not put you in a strong position."

Part 5
00:10 - Iraq!!

01:00 - Russert asks a lame question on Iraqi sovereignty.

02:30 - Stop with the hypotheticals, Russert. Jesus.

04:44 - Obama pulls a weak cop-out on his Euro-Affairs sub-committee chairmanship. 1 strike to Hilldogs many.

05:36 - Five minutes into the Iraq debate and nothing of note has been said. I blame Russert and the line of questioning.

06:15 - Holy shit, HRC was testy as hell with Williams there.

Part 6
01:41 - "Sky will open, light will come down" clip shown on accident. Obama turns it into a joke: "Sounds good."

04:21 - It's amazing how many times Obama has to provide his credentials whereas Hilldog gets a free pass. But he does it gracefully and forcefully every time.

07:28 - Obama's "co-President" remark is brought up.

08:30 - Obama's playing this whole thing pretty well. He plays the policy side well and at length and then gets in a crowd pleasing remark. Hillary looked really desperate at the start of the debate with the whole health-care shenanigans. He looks cool and calm, and she seems like an opposing fan.

Part 7
00:15 - Public financing brought up. TPM has a run-down on the McCain side of things:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=nG2OMJLT5c4

03:00 - HRC's tax returns are brought up. Russert doesn't pursue the issue. Media obviously loves Obama (or some other conspiracy nonsense)

03:35 - Haha, OMG. HRC just plugged her website. Things must be going awesome in the Clinton Camp.

05:25 - Eff Russert. Seriously. Bringing up Farrakhan? What the helse. Obama handles it better than anyone else could.

06:25 - JESUS CHRIST. Stop this guilt by association bullshit, Russert! He should be disciplined for this crap.

07:10 - Wow. Russert won't stop. Is he channeling Michelle Malkin?

Part 8
01:14 - Obama lays it out on USA-Israel, stays on point. Maybe this will be good that Russert did this now. Obama can look back in November and say "Like I've said all year, Israel is a great ally..."

03:01 - Haha, what, Hillary? Her "I love Jews more than Obama" shtick is awkward for all of us.

04:19 - Okay, so Obama just "denounced" Farrakhan. Here's HRC's retort: "You asked specifically if he would reject it, and there's a difference between 'rejecting' and 'denouncing.'" Obama's facial expression in reaction to that statement is awesome. Small laughter in the crowd at the absurdity of HRC's comments.

05:07 - How the hell can The Economist say that HRC is a better debater. Obama just shot Hillary from the sky. Applause.

Part 9
02:31 - Obama's understanding of where the true source of power lies in our democracy is amazing, and is a huge part of his appeal.

03:13 - Russert asks a question about the new President of Russia. The next five minutes should be pretty pointless.

07:44 - HRC comes as close to apologizing for her Iraq vote as she ever will.

Part 10

Closing statements. Nothing of note. Hey, Telemundo's gonna rebroadcast the whole thing in Spanish. Awesemo!

Tuesday, 26 February 2008

Quote of the Day

"I voted for HRC, and saw the writing on the wall when she didn't wipe him out on Super Tuesday and he started piling up wins. I've been very turned off by her campaign's lack of strategy and any semblance of a theme. It's become a schizophrenic mess and the buck has to stop somewhere...."

- Pearl White, TPM Comments section

Monday, 25 February 2008

HRC is a disgrace #2

Desperation rears its very cynical, ugly head. How can newspapers like The Economist endorse this vindictive woman? She looks anything but collected, calm, "presidential."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/24/hillary-clinton-mocks-bar_n_88194.html

There are many reasons why a lot of us support Obama. I happen to agree with military theorist Thomas PM Barnett: that Obama presents the best possibility of helping to 'create a future worth living in.' For many of us, this election is about a lot more than rhetoric, it's about policy and approach, and an understanding of a globalized, interdependent world. Billary Clinton is over, it's a failure. We hate your tactics, your inflated sense of self worth and accomplishment, your cynical and manipulative approach to the American public. We are sick of hearing the same Left and Right demagogues who dominate the national debate screech at pitch levels, no matter that they receive the same monies from the same lobbyists and industries. You have derailed the national interest, however vague that concept may be. It is you, Hillary Clinton, and your kind that have led us into costly, insane wars in the heart of the Mid-East, who allowed our military to lock itself into a conventional mentality in a post-Cold War world, who gave this President carte-blanche during his entire tenure, who supported an economic system that encouraged consumer debt and a widening class divide. It is you Hillary Clinton, and your kind, who sat on the boards of corporations like Wal-Mart while paying lip service to unions, corporations who not only replace concepts like "community" with "homogeny" and "society," but who actively despise their own workers and willingly use sweat shop labor from our dear friends, the Chinese, in order to undercut local businesses that do not happen to have the wives of governors on their boards. It is you, Hillary Clinton and your kind who view American politics as a game, and who view morals, positions, facts, records, data as temporary reference points -- as fleeting as the digits on the back of a baseball player's jersey. "Hope" is nothing but a catchphrase to you. "Change" is something you will mimic but never believe in. "Vision" is a concept that you have never understood.

But we've learned a lot about your character in the past 16 years, Hillary, as much as you rely on polls and analytical machinery to craft your persona. Your inability to define yourself, to present a vision of America, a future worth creating, is why independents like myself could never be for you. But it was because of your willingness to support the Second Gulf War so that you could seem tough that I will always be against you. You cannot even admit that your YES vote for the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002 gave the President the damn authorization to use military force against Iraq! I've had enough of you Hillary Clinton, and as the past 11 primaries have shown, I think many of my fellow Americans agree.

HRC is a disgrace

Welcome to American politics.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8667.html

Sunday, 24 February 2008

Weekly Links #4 - The Return

This really is a HRC special edition. With the nomination looking more and more locked up for Obama, I thought we'd take a short tour through the past and revisit some of HRC's claims of inevitability which, like her Iraq vote, seem to be based on faulty intel.

Let's kick this off right. First a look back to the glory days of Madame HRC's campaign. When Larry King recently asked Jon Stewart "What happened?" to HRC's campaign, Stewart remarked "the voters started voting." But what was the world like for HRC before voters started voting? Take a look at this interview between Katie Couric and HRC done in Nov 2007:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/26/eveningnews/main3540666.shtml

Money quote: "It will be me."

Here's a montage of HRC laughing off serious questions about her husband, Iraq, health care. Yes, back in October 2007 everyone else in the Dem race seemed like a joke. From Glenn Beck:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlF12X1dCeo

But things began to shift in December of 2007. The polls showed the races as dead-heats in both Iowa and New Hampshire. And then an infamous incident occurred at an Iowa debate where HRC interrupted Obama as he tried to describe his foreign policy credentials. It can be found in the following Countdown clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3wSWW8QmpM


And then the junior Senator from Illinois beat the junior Senator from New York in Iowa:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_idWWFE-xiY


Bill Clinton's flops in South Carolina probably didn't help his wife's campaign there. In fact, Obama took 90% of the black vote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qqd2dfjl2pw


Super Tuesday wasn't far away. This was the day it was supposed to be "all-but-over" for the Obama campaign. He ended up winning more states and more delegates.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/02/the_spin_wars.html

Super Tuesday lionized Obama. He had been a central figure of many of the debates and all of HRC's attacks for a long time, but he finally carried the national stage. We are now at 11 straight victories and counting.

Frank Rich has a wrap-up of the HRC campaign fiasco thus far titled "The Audacity of Hopelessness." Killer point in my opinion: if she's such a manager, and is "ready from Day-1," why has her campaign had so many shakeups and why did it make so many mistakes?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/24/opinion/24rich.html?ref=opinion

And Maureen Dowd published an interesting article on the HRC camp trying to criticize Obama's chief personal trait, his ability to communicate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/20/opinion/20dowd.html


Best line:

"Doin’ it her way, Hillary huffed to reporters on her plane: “If your whole candidacy is about words, they should be your own words.”

I guess that means if your whole candidacy is anti-words, you don’t have to use your own words."

Also a fun video of HRC stealing campaign slogans:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myoUzFfEdu0

Can't wait for March 4.

Saturday, 23 February 2008

Texas Debate Blog En Direct

This post will feature live-blog style coverage of the recent Texas debate. The whole thing is on youtube.com, and part 1 can be found here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVs0BfCBuRg

University of Texas
Austin, TX
Feb 22 2008

----------------------------------
Part 1
00:04 - Damn, Campbell Brown is fit.

00:40 - Opening statements about to kick off.

01:19 - HRC believes in hard work and responsibility. Astonishing stuff. Also, this is being co-sponsored by Univision, a Mexican-American Spanish language TV station. You can even find the entire debate en espangol if you want.

02:40 - HRC takes credit for CHIP now SCHIP and the good health of a couple hundred thousand Texan kids. She was First Lady at the time, bill was introduced by Sens Kennedy and Hatch. I wonder how she "made that happen"

03:15 - Sick people are like black people or gay people.

04:04 - This is why I hate opening statements.

05:00 - Obama's up. Interesting contrast between his and HRC's opening statements. She was name dropping, he's framing a bleak picture of the economic situation and the war.

07:16 - Obama knows how to communicate with people. He's already had three rounds of applause. All he's done is drop NAFTA, China, and lobbyists.

08:27 - Big applause for Obama at the end of his opening. "I want to help America be as good as its promise."

08:51 - Holy shit the Univision guy is speaking Spanish on CNN.

Part 2
02:08 - HRC shows that she's still bound to the insufferable belief our political class has that negotiating or meeting with the Americans is a gift.

03:49 - Obama rebukes that position in word, gets a round of applause.

05:03 - Obama throws a left uppercut on the issue of speaking with hostile governments. We've maintained a policy towards Cuba for 50+ years, and the only people to suffer from that policy have been the Cuban people, not Castro. Same thing for Iran, pre-2003 Iraq, Syria, NK, et al. Remember what happened when Nixon went to China.

05:49 - Applause count is 7 to 1 Obama.

07:45 - Huge applause for HRC as she renounces Bush's unilateralism. 7 to 2.

Part 3
00:30 - The Economy!

04:25 - Obama hits nicely with the crowd on economic issues, even as he bumbles a bit. Taxes: remove tax breaks for companies who ship jobs overseas, removal of GWB's taxcuts to the rich, eliminate corporate tax loopholes. Trade: "Trade should be viewed not just through Wall St., but through Main St. as well" Weening off foreign oil, institute a "green economy." Final remarks "HRC and I agree on a lot of these issues, and it's a credit to the Dem Party."

08:00 - On the economy Obama and HRC basically say the same thing. HRC drops the foreclosure crisis. Says she could fix it. These articles suggest the problem is so vast that no president will be able to just snap-yo-fingaz and fix it, even with HRC's grand "90-day moratorium." Says some nice things about infrastructure, but ends with a bizarre mention of "George Bush's War on Science" What the f***? When did she accidentally vote for that?
LINKS:
NYTimes: Credit Crunch
NPR: Foreclosure Season
FinancialSense.com: The Housing Bubble

08:30 - Pretty much a draw on the economy.

08:45 - Immigration!

09:45 - Both parties (GOP-Dem) look somewhat uncomfortable when discussing immigration. HRC's grand plan is about community centers?

Part 4
01:05 - One of Obama's gifts is his ability to put a question into a positive context. Re: Immigration, "We are a nation of immigrants and of laws, and we can reconcile those two things." Big applause. Unofficial applause count - 12 to 5 Obama.

01:50 - Obama lays out his "path to citizenship plan." Learn English, pay back taxes, significant fine, queue for citizenship responsibly. Fix the legal immigration system, reduce the waiting period. Sounds like McCain's plan that got shot down by the Malkins of this world.

03:45 - Border Fences!

Comment: This whole issue is ridiculous. You are going to build a fence that lays out across the entire American southwest that is seal-proof against drug runners and immigrants? What would that have to be, 30 feet deep, 30 feet high? And where would this fence be placed in places like El Paso and Juarez? You'd cut through a metropolitan area with a population of 5mil+ in total? Another sign that many Americans are walking nervously into globalization and our government doesn't address their concerns sincerely.

06:00 - HRC on border security: "I'd listen to the people who live along the border"

06:30 - Good God, HRC never has an original thought. "Smart fencing?" She's the most calculated, PC person I've seen on TV in my 22 years.

07:55 - Obama brings up the economic and environment implications of fences, disagrees with a physical fence. He answered the question immediately, HRC meandered and had to have the question posed twice. This is the second time I've noticed that stark contrast.

010:05 - Obama: Illegal immigrants "living in the shadows." Sounds like a Cream song. Mentions the DREAM Act he helped pass, giving American children of illegal immigrants assistance for higher education, his aversion to class warfare.

Part 5
00:20 - According to Jorge, 10% of the country speaks Spanish. Poses the very tricky question of "Is it wrong for us to become a bilingual nation."

01:30 - HRC: "I think it is important that English remain our common unifying language." "I am adamantly against the efforts by some to make English the official language. I don't think we should discriminate against people who don't speak English." Uh...What? I am praying Obama doesn't give such a vague answer to the same question...

03:00 - Obama: "I think it's important that everyone learns English. But I also think every student should be learning a second language." Drops globalization, mentions that our capacity to lead in the world will depend on a host of skills in which we've fallen behind, languages included. Drops No Child Left Behind, huge applause. Unofficial applause count, 15 to 5, Obama.

Part 6
00:03 - Campbell Brown is seriously stunning.

00:15 - The absence of Russert or Matthews is very noticeable.

01:00 - Questions on Rhetoric and Slogans!

01:32 - Jesus H. Hong I hate that expression "All Hat and No Cattle." What the hell is wrong with Texas?

02:40 - HRC: "I do offer solutions, that's what I believe in and have done. It's what I offer to voters because it's a part of my life for the last 30, 35 years." In Britain there's an acronym called a WAG... I think HRC is a WAG.

03:18 - HRC mentions that one Obama supporter who was on Hardball and was asked to name an accomplishment of Sen Obama and couldn't. Zippity-doo, HRC, I bet half of your supporters can't name a single bill you've sponsored either. But we all know about your Iraq war vote. Yes we do. Oh, and I think S.1977 was a pretty big accomplishment for the Sen from Illinois. Go look it up. Respect.

03:26 - Just want to note that after HRC mentions that Hardball episode, she says "And there are contrasts between us, and it's important that voters get that information." As if the Hardball episode somehow defines the two candidates. I think 11 straight primary victories for Obama provides a more substantive reference point.

03:37 - HRC: "Actions speak louder than words."Nice platitude. Iraq votes speak louder than Penn or Wolfson.

04:57 - Obama counters HRC's rhetoric beautifully, speaks of his own record, gives a nod to HRC herself, gains the moral ground. All at once.

05:30 - Obama makes fun of HRC's comment she made a few weeks ago that Obama supporters were "delusional." Big applause.

07:30 - Obama was born for television. Thundering applause. Lasted 20 seconds.

07:50 - Oh God, Plagiarism!

Part 7
01:40 - Oh snap. "The notion that I plagiarized from one of my national co-chairs, who gave me the line and suggested that I use it is silly. This is when we start to get into silly season in politics. What I've been talking about in these speeches -- and I gotta admit, some of them are pretty good -- it's not just about hope and inspiration, it's about a $4000 tuition credit for every student, in exchange for every year of national service, so that college becomes more affordable, I've been talking about the reworking of the tax codes, I've been talking about ending this war in Iraq..."

2:57 - HRC looks really uncomfortable at the audience's reaction to Obama's counter.

03:30 - HRC: "It's not change you can believe in, it's change you can Xerox." Gets booed. Hahaha.

04:09 - I wonder if, at the start of campaign season, HRC knew she'd be saying the word "Change" 800x a day.

05:15 - Jesus, Obama looks non-plussed.

05:35 - HRC referencing her great days as First Lady, an unelected position and pretty much an honorary title. I don't think anyone under 30 cares.

07:00 - Debate has naturally shifted to Health Care. Finally back to an issue.

08:35 - Obama: "Sen Clinton believes the only way to achieve universal health care is to force everybody to purchase it. And my belief is that the reason that people don't have it is not because people don't want it, it's that they cannot afford it. And so I emphasize reducing costs...the notion that I am leaving 15mil people out implies that somehow we are different in our goals." Namedrops former cabinet members of WJC.

Part 8
00:20 - Obama has looked very "presidential" and confident. So far I'd say the campaign is a 6-4 match to Obama.

00:45 - Question to HRC: "Do you believe Obama is ready to be CINC?" Obama is the central figure of this debate. She shifts it back to health care.

Part 9
00:10 - Back to the Obama as CINC question.

00:30 - HRC: "For more than 15 years I've been honored to represent our country." What the hell? Being First Lady doesn't make you a diplomat Hilldog. Her own self-aggrandizement is astonishing.

01:46 - I seriously do not understand how anyone could rigorously follow this campaign cycle and say HRC's grasp of foreign affairs is deeper or more nuanced than Obama's. She lists off a series of events that have happened in the past week -- Pakistan's election, Castro, the events in Kosova/Serbia -- says "see, there's a whole host of challenges" and somehow we're supposed to believe that that is an argument? Oh, she also supports Kosovo's independence, which is surely more important that EU-Russia relations or US-Russia relations.

02:06 - HRC: "And I would hold the Serbian security services responsible to protect our embassy." HERES THE NEWS! So would every president! The FP debate should be about GRAND STRATEGY, aka your "vision" HRC. This is what frustrates me more than anything about this woman, she can't see beyond the brush stroke.

02:13 - HRC: "And when you think about everything that's happening..." I think her entire campaign tactic re: foreign policy is try to overwhelm a crowd with names and dates, make it sound like she has a strategy, and then wing it once she gets into office. You know what we'll get with 8 Clinton years? No new action v. Al-Qaeda, and a small, slow humiliating burn out of Iraq. At least the Canadians will respect us though. This "Day-1" bullshit is becoming really tiring.

03:52 - Parts of the crowd interrupt Obama to applaud when he mentions that Clinton was "wrong on Iraq." Unofficial applause count 20 to 8, Obama.

05:20 - Obama on Iraq: "Going into Iraq originally, I said this would distract us from Afghanistan, this would fan the flames of anti-American sentiment, this is going to cost us billions of dollars and thousands of lives and overstretch our military. And I was right." Obama on Pakistan: "We have put all our eggs in the Musharraf basket, and that was a mistake. We should be going after Al-Qaeda and make sure that Pakistan is serious about hunting terrorists. And I was right."

06:40 - Amazing how group think works in the small world of TV-media and the political class. John King suggests that the security situation in Iraq "is better, ideal, no, but better, some say significantly." Let's take a short trip down reality lane:
Juan Cole on the recent escalation of violence
Violence in Iraq on the rise
Turkey vs. Kurdistan
Iraq Benchmarks not met
Harper's report on Iraqi oil
on the plus side, a new oil deal looks to be settled soon:
via UPI

Anyways...back to the debate

06:45 - Formal title of the question at hand: "Is Iraq better off now due to the surge than it was a year ago." How pitiful.

07:30 - I think everyone knows the surge had almost nothing to do with the recent downturn in violence, at least outside of Baghdad. I read, I think at d-n-i.net, that among the 30000 soldiers that were sent there (and are now being drawn down), only around 10-12k were "trigger pullers", and its not like those guys work 24h/7d, so on average at any given moment you have around 3000 extra "trigger pullers" doing security operations. Just reading Al-Jazeera and McClatchy and CFR, I think we know what happened in Baghdad and al-Anbar.

07:45 - HRC: "The Iraqi govt has not taken advantage of the sacrifice and the losses of life and the billions of dollars."

08:09 - HRC makes a bold promise to begin the withdrawal within 60 days. "1-2 brigades a month"

Part 10
00:28 - Obama: "I think it's indisputable that we've seen violence reduced in Iraq...this is a tactical victory imposed upon a huge strategic blunder. And I think that when we're having a debate with John McCain, it will be much easier for the candidate who was opposed to the concept of invading Iraq in the first place -- to have a debate about the wisdom of that decision, than having to argue about the tactics subsequent to the decision." Finishes up with a whipping of John McCain. Obama is clearly trying to be perceived as the Dem candidate.

03:50 - Campbell Brown...

04:06 - Transparency and Secrecy!

06:35 - King poses a tricky question for Obama and HRC. McCain apparently has never asked for $1 of pork-barrel spending, whereas Obama has earmarked $91mil and Clinton around $320mil for their states. Question: "Does John McCain make a better case for fiscal accountability in government?" HRC: "No, not at all. Because he supported the wasteful tax cuts and the Iraq war." She then references the boomin'-90's.

08:30 - Superdelegates!

Part 11
01:45 - Both candidates brush off the superdelegate question.

03:00 - Final question: "Describe the moment in your life when you were tested most."

04:45 - HRC implies that the Monica Lewinsky scandal was pretty damn tough. Then: "The hits I've taken in life are nothing compared to the things that go on in the lives of people in this country every single day...I was called by my faith and upbringing to do what I could to give others the same opportunities and blessings that I took for granted."

07:45 - It's over.
--------------------------------

Campaign narratives

It's a bizarre thing to watch CNN clips of election coverage on the internet. What you'll usually get to see is a two minute clip that features excerpts from speeches by the remaining candidates and a couple different storylines, without the when, where, or what. The excerpts of the speeches usually reinforce whatever the producers at CNN believe the narrative of the week to be (hint hint, Speeches vs. Solutions!) I've always been curious how this process starts -- of reducing a candidate and all of their positions, speeches, and personal history into an abstract, usually 5 words or less -- but I think it's obvious that in an age of TV the campaigns try to define both themselves and their opponents in as minimal a way as possible. Like this recent NYT story shows, HRC badly underestimated Obama's chances for a run at the nomination, and I think he was able to take advantage of her early laziness and take control of the whole storyline in the Dem primary. "Change," "Hope," whatever, HRC's campaign has been completely reactionary since Iowa. Her campaign started with "Renewing the promise of America." After Iowa, the influence of Obama's surge is obvious: “Working for Change, Working for You.” “Strength and Experience.” “The Strength and Experience to Make Change Happen” (that reads nicely). Today's it's "Solutions for America."

Ben Smith at politico.com made some interesting comments regarding HRC's slogan rotation:

"The shifting, carefully measured words reflect some of the strengths of her campaign but some of its most visible weaknesses. They’re the product of years of meticulous polling, layers of advisers, and evidence of a detailed understanding of what Iowans and Americans want to hear. But they also reflect more perspiration than inspiration. And they don’t have a beat you can dance to."

While in Texas HRC recently said, "We need to make a choice. Between speeches and solutions. Because while words matter greatly, the best words in the world aren't enough unless you match them with action."

Obama's retort? "It's not a choice between speeches and solutions. It's a choice between a politics that offers more of the same divisions and distractions that didn't work in South Carolina, didn't work in Wisconsin, and will not work in Texas."

I believe the key point in this battle of rhetoric is that Obama, not Clinton, is the central figure, and has been for a long time, even before he was the frontrunner. As long as HRC's campaign continues to offer nothing but backhanded compliments to Mr Obama's communication skills -- "Speeches Don't Solve Problems" -- I believe she will continue to lose primaries. And that's damn fine with me.

Monday, 18 February 2008

"Yes We Can"

Following up the last post, here is the famous "Yes We Can" speech that Mr Obama delivered in January.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fe751kMBwms


And here is HRC taking a pathetic rip at Mr Obama's inspiring speech:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRQD-MsSpfI


Things going well, Hilldog?

Sunday, 17 February 2008

"Movement" "Bandwagon" "Frontleader"...and a really terrible Will.i.am song

Well I doubt I really need to mention what's happened since Feb 5. Obama held his own on Super Tuesday and then won the next 7 primaries/caucuses, and has taken a commanding lead moving towards the month of March. In my own HRC-hating state of Idaho, Mr Obama won 29 of 30 counties, and the state dem party scored a record turnout for a caucus, mainly because of independents and republicans turning out in droves for Obama. The events of the past two weeks has lead to a pretty dramatic shift in how the race to the Dem convention is being portrayed in the media. For one, he is now viewed as the clear frontrunner. This last week, the HRC-loving British newspaper The Economist had Obama on the cover with the headline "But Could he Deliver?" He is also starting to pull in pundits and talking heads of all types. Maureen Dowd and Frank Rich of the NYT have blasted HRC over the past 3 weeks while consistently praising Obama in a stark contrast. Chris Matthews, who has had many spats with the Clintons dating back some years, spoke of a "chill up the leg" that he gets when he hears Obama speak. Even some Republican bean-counters are starting to speak of Mr Obama in glowing terms. Take a look at this video:

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Frank_Luntz_enthusiastic_about_Obamas_words_0214.html

I always felt this shift would take place at some point during the primary season. HRC's strength, her "CEO-from-day-one" shtick, and her abilities on the campaign trail were all exaggerations. She has absolutely no likeability, which makes it hard for her to campaign in a media world dominated by television. Her baggage is immense, especially with Republicans and independents, and her husband's missteps in January (I think) boosted Obama at the right moment going into Super Tuesday. What I never considered was the horror Hollywood and will.i.am from the Black Eyed Peas would create once Obama had the nation's attention and growing admiration. Check it out:

http://www.yeswecansong.com/

....

Humor website SomethingAwful.com came up with their own tribute in retort:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6AYrYZCQig

Sunday, 3 February 2008

Weekly Links #3: Polls, Push polling, Feb 5

Feb. 2 Dem nationwide poll (click for big), via Pollster.com:























Obama surging up :)

HRC push-polling in California, via LATimes:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/02/breaking-news-p.html

wikipedia article on push-polling (hate to use it, but it's correct on this one):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll

Obama cripples HRC on Iraq, via Politico.com:
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=D2FF4D65-3048-5C12-001AA97B5EB71A37

CNN.com discusses the election cycle after Feb. 5:
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/02/super.tuesday/