Sources:
http://www.270towin.com
http://www.realclearpolitics.com
http://www.pollster.com
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
Final national average based on aggregate (pollster.com):
Obama: 52.0
McCain: 44.3
My guesses:
Final electoral college:
Obama: 378
McCain: 160
Battlegrounds, last poll averages, projected winner. Based on aggregates of both RCP.com and Pollster.com, which are aggregates themselves:
VIRGINIA:
Obama, +4.5
Winner: Obama
NORTH CAROLINA:
McCain, +0.4
Winner: Obama, based on early voting trends, plus the size of Obama's organization in NC.
PENNSLYVANIA:
Obama, +7.25
Winner: Obama by a mile. I heard a report on NPR detailing how Obama's field offices outnumber McCains more than 4 to 1 in PA, and how they operate in some capacity for 24 hours a day. McCain's were shutting down at 8pm in what his campaign detailed as a must win.
GEORGIA:
McCain, +3.5
Winner: McCain
MISSOURI:
Obama, +0.2
Winner: Obama. His field operation is "the largest in Missouri political history." I remember during the primaries reading that he had sent two young deputees down to Missouri to lay the groundwork there well before even the Iowa caucus. Hillary had no one there until after Super Tuesday. His steady, longterm presence in the state will turn out his supporters, while I'm guessing the Republicans will suffer a smaller turnout than the polls suggest. Maybe a five point differential.
INDIANA:
McCain, +1.3
Winner: Obama. The situation mirrors Indiana closely. Long standing organization. Massive get out the vote effort.
OHIO:
Obama, +2.5
Winner: Obama, see link above.
FLORIDA:
Obama, +1.75
Winner: Obama. Again it's the organization.
COLORADO:
Obama, +5.9
Winner: Obama
NEVADA:
Obama, +6.9
Winner: Obama
NORTH DAKOTA:
McCain, +0.7
Winner: Obama. Not only does he have more people there, the polls show a sharp McCain slide. Also see: LINK.
MONTANA:
McCain, +2.1
Winner: McCain
Final pitches:
Obama relates a motivating story about civic power. McCain talks about water rights in New Mexico.
Tuesday, 4 November 2008
Sunday, 2 November 2008
snopes.com
LINK:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/obama.asp
Pretty awesome rumor collection. Some are benign (Obama can't hold a phone correctly) and some are pretty vicious (he's a jew-hating Muslim born in Kenya who is conspiring to overthrow the American government) Most are of course false.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/obama.asp
Pretty awesome rumor collection. Some are benign (Obama can't hold a phone correctly) and some are pretty vicious (he's a jew-hating Muslim born in Kenya who is conspiring to overthrow the American government) Most are of course false.
Saturday, 1 November 2008
Haass on Afghanistan
LINK:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/165648/
"The Taliban is gaining ground; security is deteriorating; drugs and corruption are rampant. More U.S. and NATO troops are needed, but any increase will need to be temporary, given rising Afghan nationalism. The chief priority should be training Afghanistan's Army and police. Regular talks are needed with those with a stake in the country's future, including Iran, Pakistan, India, China, Russia, and NATO. The government should be encouraged to meet with Taliban leaders willing to accept a ceasefire. Counterdrug efforts, while essential, should be targeted and low-key, lest an alienated populace grow more so."
Many of Haass's ideas are conventional and reassuring, but are counterintuitive when you consider the information gleaned from sources such as the HTT program and Nir Rosen's recent piece in Rolling Stone. Are we prepared to continue a half assed, nation building exercise in the heart of fragmenting Central Asia for another 30 years? If not, then we should leave immediately instead of continuing to insist that throwing cash at bridges, clinics, girls schools, and counter narcotics is going to lead to victory. Like William Lind might say, "Go Rome or go home."
http://www.newsweek.com/id/165648/
"The Taliban is gaining ground; security is deteriorating; drugs and corruption are rampant. More U.S. and NATO troops are needed, but any increase will need to be temporary, given rising Afghan nationalism. The chief priority should be training Afghanistan's Army and police. Regular talks are needed with those with a stake in the country's future, including Iran, Pakistan, India, China, Russia, and NATO. The government should be encouraged to meet with Taliban leaders willing to accept a ceasefire. Counterdrug efforts, while essential, should be targeted and low-key, lest an alienated populace grow more so."
Many of Haass's ideas are conventional and reassuring, but are counterintuitive when you consider the information gleaned from sources such as the HTT program and Nir Rosen's recent piece in Rolling Stone. Are we prepared to continue a half assed, nation building exercise in the heart of fragmenting Central Asia for another 30 years? If not, then we should leave immediately instead of continuing to insist that throwing cash at bridges, clinics, girls schools, and counter narcotics is going to lead to victory. Like William Lind might say, "Go Rome or go home."
Ugly
LINK:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/01/hussein-chant-at-palin-rally/
“I guess Obama was named after Saddam Hussein.”
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/01/hussein-chant-at-palin-rally/
“I guess Obama was named after Saddam Hussein.”
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
