Tuesday, 4 November 2008

THE MAP!

Sources:
http://www.270towin.com
http://www.realclearpolitics.com
http://www.pollster.com
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

Final national average based on aggregate (pollster.com):
Obama: 52.0
McCain: 44.3

My guesses:

Final electoral college:
Obama: 378
McCain: 160

Battlegrounds, last poll averages, projected winner. Based on aggregates of both RCP.com and Pollster.com, which are aggregates themselves:

VIRGINIA:
Obama, +4.5
Winner: Obama

NORTH CAROLINA:
McCain, +0.4
Winner: Obama, based on early voting trends, plus the size of Obama's organization in NC.

PENNSLYVANIA:
Obama, +7.25
Winner: Obama by a mile. I heard a report on NPR detailing how Obama's field offices outnumber McCains more than 4 to 1 in PA, and how they operate in some capacity for 24 hours a day. McCain's were shutting down at 8pm in what his campaign detailed as a must win.

GEORGIA:
McCain, +3.5
Winner: McCain

MISSOURI:
Obama, +0.2
Winner: Obama. His field operation is "the largest in Missouri political history." I remember during the primaries reading that he had sent two young deputees down to Missouri to lay the groundwork there well before even the Iowa caucus. Hillary had no one there until after Super Tuesday. His steady, longterm presence in the state will turn out his supporters, while I'm guessing the Republicans will suffer a smaller turnout than the polls suggest. Maybe a five point differential.

INDIANA:
McCain, +1.3
Winner: Obama. The situation mirrors Indiana closely. Long standing organization. Massive get out the vote effort.

OHIO:
Obama, +2.5
Winner: Obama, see link above.

FLORIDA:
Obama, +1.75
Winner: Obama. Again it's the organization.

COLORADO:
Obama, +5.9
Winner: Obama

NEVADA:
Obama, +6.9
Winner: Obama

NORTH DAKOTA:
McCain, +0.7
Winner: Obama. Not only does he have more people there, the polls show a sharp McCain slide. Also see: LINK.

MONTANA:
McCain, +2.1
Winner: McCain

Final pitches:
Obama relates a motivating story about civic power. McCain talks about water rights in New Mexico.

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